In the rare event of a tie in the U.S. presidential election, the decision of who becomes the next president is determined by a centuries-old constitutional process. While it’s unlikely, the possibility of a tie in the Electoral College remains a theoretical scenario that has occurred in U.S. history.
As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump battle for votes in one of the most hotly contested elections, the outcome could, in a highly improbable situation, end in a deadlock. This would require a deep dive into the intricate workings of the U.S. Electoral College, a system that allocates electoral votes to each state based on population and that ultimately decides the winner of the presidency.
The Basics of the Electoral College
The U.S. Electoral College consists of 538 electoral votes, and a candidate must secure a majority of at least 270 votes to win the presidency. While it’s mathematically possible for the two candidates to end up with exactly 269 votes each, such a result would trigger a constitutional mechanism to break the tie.
What Happened When There Was a Tie Before?
Historically, the United States has witnessed two election ties: one in 1800 and another in 1824, both of which shaped the future of U.S. presidential elections.
In the 1800 election, Thomas Jefferson, representing the Democratic-Republican Party, and Aaron Burr, his running mate, both received the same number of electoral votes. At the time, electors cast two votes each, and the candidate with the highest votes was elected president, while the second-place candidate became vice president. This system led to a tie between Jefferson and Burr, both of whom were from the same party. The election was ultimately decided by the House of Representatives, where each state delegation cast one vote. After multiple ballots, Jefferson was chosen president, with Burr becoming vice president.
The chaos of the 1800 election prompted the creation of the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, which requires electors to cast separate votes for president and vice president to prevent such ties in the future.
The next major election tie came in 1824, when none of the candidates received a majority of the electoral votes. Andrew Jackson had the most votes (99), but John Quincy Adams (84), William Crawford (41), and Henry Clay (37) split the vote among regional factions of the same party. As no candidate received a majority, the election was decided by the House of Representatives, with each state casting one vote. Adams won the presidency, despite Jackson receiving more popular votes and electoral votes.
What Happens in a Tie Today?
If the 2024 election results in a tie, with both Harris and Trump securing 269 electoral votes each, the decision would be thrown to the U.S. House of Representatives, which would choose the president from among the top three candidates. A simple majority of 26 states would be required to elect the new president.
In the case of a tie, the House would vote by state delegation, with each state casting one vote. This means smaller states, such as Wyoming, with fewer than 600,000 people, would have the same influence in the decision-making process as California, the most populous state with nearly 40 million residents.
Interestingly, the outcome would depend on the political makeup of the House of Representatives, which will also be decided in the same election. If the House is divided, representatives from each state will face enormous pressure, and in some cases, they may have to choose between backing the candidate who won the popular vote in their state or supporting their party’s nominee.
The Role of the Senate and Vice President Selection
In the event of a deadlock, the Senate would take over the responsibility of selecting the vice president. The Senate would choose between the top two vice-presidential candidates based on the electoral votes, with each senator casting one vote. This could lead to an unprecedented situation where the president and vice president come from different political parties, a scenario that is highly unlikely but constitutionally possible.
Moreover, if the president has not been elected by Inauguration Day (January 20), the newly selected vice president could serve as acting president until the deadlock is resolved.
How Likely Is a Tie?
While a tie remains a rare and unlikely scenario, it is worth considering various possibilities. Some election scenarios, such as a close race in crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan, could lead to a situation where both candidates end up with 269 electoral votes. If that were to happen, the U.S. would find itself in the midst of a “contingent election” — a process that hasn’t been used for two centuries.
Given the political polarization in the country, any tie would set the stage for a highly contentious and dramatic outcome. The House of Representatives, where control may be evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, would find itself in an intense standoff, and it is unclear whether this process would further divide the nation or bring about a resolution.
Conclusion
Though the likelihood of a tie in the 2024 presidential election is slim, the possibility exists, and the U.S. Constitution has mechanisms in place to address such an outcome. If it were to happen, it would be the responsibility of the U.S. House of Representatives to select the president, with each state delegation casting a single vote. This scenario could result in a highly complex and politically charged process, with significant implications for the nation’s governance and future.
However, one thing is certain: if the race does end in a tie, the already intense political landscape would become even more fraught, as elected officials and the American people await the outcome of a process that hasn’t been seen in more than 200 years.