A new report from the European Policy Centre (EPC) reveals that European voting behavior remained largely unaffected by Donald Trump’s presidency. Despite early expectations that Trump’s 2025 victory would inspire a right-wing wave across Europe, researchers found no significant shifts in election patterns. Their analysis, which covered polling data before and after Trump’s win, shows that European voters continued to prioritize local issues over US political developments.
No Major Shifts in European Political Landscape:
Following Donald Trump’s 2025 election victory, many analysts speculated that his win would trigger a surge in far-right support across Europe. Right-wing leaders praised Trump for his stance on immigration and climate change and hoped to harness his momentum for their own political gains. However, despite these early predictions, the EPC study shows no substantial changes in European voting patterns.
EPC’s analysis focused on polling data and political developments surrounding the 2025 US election. Their findings suggest that European voters remained focused on domestic concerns, rather than being swayed by foreign political events. “European voters respond to local issues,” said Javier Carbonell, an EPC analyst. “While the US has an influence on markets and tech regulation, Trump did not affect Europe’s electoral preferences.”
Continued Support for Far-Right Parties:
EPC researchers noted that far-right parties maintained stable levels of support across Europe, particularly in countries like Austria, Germany, Spain, and Portugal. Even nations with strong far-right backing, such as Poland, Hungary, Italy, and the Czech Republic, saw no major changes in voter behavior. According to EPC’s report, far-right support averaged 24–25% across Europe, indicating little to no impact from Trump’s re-election.
“Far-right support has remained consistent from October 2024 to April 2025,” said Carbonell. “We didn’t see any significant shifts after Trump’s victory.”
However, the study did encounter complications with Romania’s data following the annulment of its 2024 presidential election. As a result, Romania’s figures were excluded from the analysis. Carbonell explained that unreliable data made Romania an outlier in the study.
Declining US Influence in Europe:
While far-right support remained steady, Trump’s reputation in Europe took a noticeable hit. A survey by Le Grand Continent and Cluster 17 found that only 6–8% of Germans, Spaniards, and French viewed Trump as an ally. US reputation scores dropped significantly, with YouGov data revealing a 20–30 point decline in countries like Germany, France, Sweden, and Denmark.
Regions such as France and Italy, which rely heavily on wine production, also expressed discontent with Trump’s trade policies. His administration’s approach to tariffs and international relations further alienated voters in these countries, weakening right-wing sentiment across Europe.
Attempts to Import Trump’s Politics Fail:
Several European political movements tried to import Trump-style politics, but with limited success. In Spain, the far-right Vox party hosted a “Make Europe Great Again” summit in Madrid, but it failed to gain significant traction. Similarly, an interview with AfD leader Alice Weidel by Elon Musk in Germany did not reshape public opinion.
“These actions had some impact, but counter-forces neutralized them,” Carbonell stated. The report highlights that European political responses remained largely local, shaped by regional issues rather than US political dynamics. In Canada, Trump’s victory sparked a rise in Liberal support, but the same effect did not occur in Europe.
Regional Causes Behind Far-Right Gains:
The EPC report emphasizes that far-right gains in Europe are driven by regional factors rather than external influences. Tabea Schaumann, co-author of the report, explained that voters’ support for far-right parties is influenced by issues like inequality, economic stagnation, and cultural conflicts. “Distrust in institutions, as well as opposition to feminism and sustainability, also play a role,” Schaumann noted.
Each European country has its own set of drivers for far-right support, with local conflicts playing a significant role. For instance, in Spain, the Catalonia independence movement remains a major political issue that shapes voters’ preferences.
In conclusion, the European Policy Centre’s report underscores that European voters have largely remained unaffected by Donald Trump’s presidency. Despite early predictions of a far-right surge across the continent, local issues continue to dominate election outcomes. Trump’s political influence has waned in Europe, with voters placing greater emphasis on regional challenges and concerns.