In the recent U.S. presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris was defeated after losing three critical “blue wall” states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—to former President Donald Trump. These states, long held by Democrats from 1992 to 2012, have been crucial for Democratic victories. Trump initially breached this “blue wall” in 2016, contributing to his unexpected victory over Hillary Clinton, but President Joe Biden won them back in 2020 with Harris as his running mate. This time, however, the trio shifted back to Trump, who narrowly claimed victory in all three states, ultimately earning him the presidency.
Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, campaigned extensively in these battleground states. Despite her efforts, Harris lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by narrow margins—results that significantly impacted her electoral tally, bringing her to 226 electoral votes, well below the 270 required to win. Trump’s margin in these states was small but enough to secure a decisive 312 electoral votes.
One key reason for Harris’s defeat was a shift in suburban voter support, which Democrats had hoped would lean more heavily toward Harris. Instead, Trump won suburban voters by a margin of 51% to 47%, reversing Biden’s slight suburban advantage from the 2020 election. Harris performed well in several suburban counties, such as Oakland County in Michigan and Montgomery County in Pennsylvania, but her lead there was not enough to counter Trump’s gains in rural and exurban areas.
Additionally, Harris faced challenges in maintaining the level of minority support that Biden enjoyed. Trump’s increased support among Black men and Latino voters reduced Harris’s margins in many urban areas, including Detroit’s Oakland County, where her 10-point win fell short of Biden’s 14-point lead in 2020. Harris’s campaign also faced resistance from Arab American voters in Dearborn, Michigan, many of whom reportedly switched to Trump, influenced by dissatisfaction over the Biden administration’s response to the Gaza conflict.
Harris’s campaign had the backing of several public-sector unions, yet her support was not as solid as Biden’s four years earlier. While she maintained a significant share of the union vote in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump made notable inroads with union households in Wisconsin, winning 51% to Harris’s 49%. Even in union-heavy areas, Harris struggled to match Trump’s appeal to working-class voters, many of whom saw Trump as a stronger advocate for economic concerns. Economic issues proved decisive, with 32% of voters identifying it as their top priority, favoring Trump by a wide margin of 80% to 19%.
These setbacks in the blue wall states, combined with Trump’s success in consolidating support from suburban, rural, and union voters, contributed to Harris’s loss, signaling challenges for Democrats seeking to regain these key swing states.