A potential 10% tariff on all European Union (EU) exports to the United States could significantly disrupt trade. This tariff threatens to damage economic ties and impact several EU countries’ economies. While Germany, Ireland, and Italy are often in the spotlight, many other EU nations also depend heavily on the US market.
Donald Trump’s re-election campaign has reignited concerns about these tariffs. During his previous presidency, he criticized the EU for not buying more American cars and agricultural products. With his campaign gaining momentum, the 10% tariff proposal has become a major issue, forcing the EU to consider possible countermeasures.
Which EU Countries Would Be Hit Hardest?
Germany, Ireland, and Italy Lead in Exports to the US
Germany, Ireland, and Italy are the top three EU exporters to the US. In 2023, Germany’s exports to the US reached €157.7 billion, the highest among EU nations. Italy followed with €67.3 billion, while Ireland’s exports totaled €51.6 billion. Combined, these three countries made up 55% of all EU exports to the US.
Other countries with large US export volumes include France (€43.9 billion), the Netherlands (€40.5 billion), Belgium (€31.3 billion), and Spain (€18.9 billion). A 10% tariff could heavily affect these economies, as US exports play a major role in their trade portfolios.
Which Countries Rely Most on the US Market?
The share of a country’s total exports going to the US provides another perspective. Ireland is the most dependent, with 45.8% of its extra-EU exports going to the US. This reliance highlights Ireland’s vulnerability to a US tariff increase.
Seven other EU nations send over 20% of their extra-EU exports to the US. These include Finland, Austria, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Slovakia, and Sweden. By comparison, Spain’s US-bound exports account for only 13% of its extra-EU exports, and France’s share is 16%. Slovenia, Cyprus, and Greece send less than 10% of their exports to the US, making them less exposed to tariff-related risks.
Ireland: Most Exposed EU Economy
Ireland’s economy is the most exposed to US tariff changes. In 2023, 26.6% of its total exports went to the US, the highest proportion among EU countries. This dependency places Ireland’s economy at greater risk than its EU counterparts.
Finland’s total exports to the US made up 11.1% of its total exports, while Italy’s figure was 10.7%, and Germany’s was 9.9%. France and Spain had lower shares of their total exports going to the US at 7.3% and 4.8%, respectively.
Nordic Countries’ Dependence on US Exports
Nordic countries also show significant reliance on the US market. Finland’s exports to the US account for 11.1% of its total, second only to Ireland. Sweden’s US export share is 8.9%, and Denmark’s is 8.3%. Austria (7.1%), Portugal (6.8%), and Belgium (6.3%) also have substantial portions of their total exports tied to the US.
In total, 10 EU countries send more than 5% of their exports to the US. This reliance underscores how a 10% tariff would affect a wide range of EU nations, not just the largest exporters like Germany, Ireland, and Italy.
The Potential Fallout for Sweden and Finland
Sweden’s Concerns About Economic Impact
Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has voiced concerns over the possible fallout from a 10% tariff. He warned that Swedish industries dependent on US demand would face significant disruptions. Sweden’s reliance on exports, especially in sectors like machinery and manufacturing, could lead to widespread job cuts and reduced economic growth.
Finland’s Trade at Risk
Finland’s export sector could face serious challenges if US tariffs increase. The US is Finland’s largest non-EU trading partner. Finnish exports of steel, paper, and technology could be particularly vulnerable, forcing companies to seek alternative markets. Finnish businesses have already started preparing for a potential shift in trade conditions.
Impact on Non-EU Countries Like the UK
Even non-EU countries like the United Kingdom remain heavily dependent on US trade. In 2023, the US accounted for 15.6% of UK’s total goods exports, amounting to approximately €74 billion. Despite Brexit, the US continues to be one of the UK’s most important trading partners.
Conclusion: Far-Reaching Economic Consequences
A 10% tariff on EU exports to the US would have significant consequences for European economies. Germany, Ireland, and Italy would face the biggest challenges, but smaller EU economies with high exposure to US trade, such as Sweden, Finland, and Austria, could also experience severe disruptions. While the EU considers how to respond, it’s clear that this tariff would send shockwaves through multiple European economies.