The European Union (EU) faces growing concern over the possibility of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. This anxiety stems from fears that Trump’s leadership could weaken crucial support for Ukraine amid its ongoing war with Russia.
Potential Shift in US-EU Relations
The outcome of the election may significantly impact US-EU relations, especially regarding trade, industrial policy, and digital regulations. However, the EU’s primary worry centers on continued support for Ukraine. Any disruption in US aid could have serious consequences on the battlefield.
Trump has consistently criticized US assistance to Ukraine. During negotiations for a foreign aid package, which included $60 billion (€55.4 billion) in military aid for Ukraine, Trump pushed for the funds to be loans rather than grants. On his platform, Truth Social, Trump argued that the US should attach “strings” to any financial support.
At a June rally, Trump referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that’s ever lived.” He expressed frustration with the ongoing aid flow, stating, “Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion… It never ends.”
In July, Trump met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a close ally, who suggested Trump would cut financial support for Ukraine. Orbán warned that without US backing, Ukraine’s war effort would collapse, as “Ukraine cannot stand on its own.” Later, Orbán cautioned EU leaders that Trump’s re-election could shift the financial landscape for US-EU support for Ukraine.
The Threat of Aid Withdrawal
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU has worked closely with Washington to coordinate military, financial, and humanitarian assistance. Under President Joe Biden, the US provided a steady flow of support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, including $64 billion (€59 billion) in military aid. Meanwhile, the EU’s military support amounted to €43.5 billion, despite facing logistical challenges.
The EU’s aid efforts extended to financial and humanitarian support, totaling €57.8 billion. Collaborative initiatives with the G7 also aimed to cap Russian oil prices and grant loans to Ukraine. This united front could weaken if Trump follows through on his threats to reduce US aid.
Sven Biscop of the Egmont Institute warned that Europe’s capacity to fill the gap left by the US is limited. “That would create significant problems because Europe is not prepared to take over,” Biscop said. Without American support, Ukraine’s ability to sustain its war effort could diminish within months.
Will EU remain supportive of Ukraine?
While Biscop believes the EU will remain supportive of Ukraine, he questions the current strategy’s long-term viability. The strategy focuses on maintaining the status quo rather than seeking territorial liberation. The EU’s limited military production, sluggish economy, and the rise of far-right parties complicate its ability to increase support.
These challenges became clear last year when delays in a $60 billion US aid package forced the EU to assess its ability to act independently. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell conceded, “Europe cannot replace the US.”
As the election draws near, EU officials are increasingly uneasy. Polls show a close race between Trump and his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, who has pledged continued support for Ukraine. In contrast, Trump has avoided firm commitments, suggesting a desire to broker a swift peace deal. After a meeting with Zelenskyy, Trump said, “If we win, we’re going to get it resolved very quickly.” However, critics fear that if negotiations fail, Trump may abandon the conflict altogether, leaving Ukraine and Europe to face the fallout alone.
David McAllister, chair of the European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, warned that a second Trump presidency could undermine the transatlantic partnership cultivated under Biden. McAllister urged the EU and US to maintain strong ties, regardless of the election’s outcome, to ensure resilience in their relationship.
