Kosmos 482, a Soviet spacecraft launched in 1972, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere uncontrollably next week. The Venus lander, which failed to leave Earth’s orbit due to a rocket malfunction, has been circling the planet for more than five decades.
Kosmos 482: Designed for Venus, Now Falling Back to Earth
Weighing nearly 500 kilograms and measuring about one meter in diameter, Kosmos 482 was built to survive Venus’s thick carbon dioxide atmosphere. This durability makes it more likely that parts of the spacecraft will survive the fiery re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere.
Marco Langbroek, an orbital debris expert at Delft University of Technology, estimates the spacecraft will re-enter on 10 May. At speeds of about 150 mph (242 km/h), it may pose a small risk to objects or people on the ground.
Minimal Risk, But Damage Is Possible
Langbroek emphasized the low risk to human life. He compared it to the chance of being hit by a random meteorite, saying, “You’re far more likely to be struck by lightning.” However, the possibility of damage remains, though small.
Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, noted the spacecraft’s heat shield could affect its fate. “If the heat shield fails, it will burn up. But if it holds, we could see a half-ton metal object falling from the sky,” he explained.
Uncertain Re-Entry Location, But Ocean Likely
The spacecraft could land anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, an area that stretches from London to Cape Horn in South America. However, most of this region is covered by oceans, so experts predict it will likely land in the sea.
This re-entry follows several other uncontrolled returns of space debris, including China’s Long March booster in 2022 and the Tiangong-1 space station in 2018, both of which fell into the South Pacific. Scientists continue to monitor Kosmos 482’s orbit closely to refine predictions about its re-entry.
Monitoring Kosmos 482’s Path
While the threat to human life is minimal, experts continue to track Kosmos 482’s descent. As the re-entry date nears, scientists will adjust their predictions for the spacecraft’s landing zone. Authorities will keep the public informed as new data becomes available.