In a surprising turn of events, Germany’s far-right party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), has drawn level with the traditionally dominant CDU/CSU in national polling. According to the latest INSA “Sunday Trend” poll for Bild, both parties now stand at 24 percent. This development marks a historic high for the AfD and an unprecedented low for the CDU/CSU during the ongoing coalition talks.
Coalition Talks Impact CDU/CSU Support
The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, had won the Bundestag election on 23 February with 28.5 percent of the vote, outpacing the AfD, which secured 20.8 percent. However, the conservative alliance has seen a sharp decline in support, losing 4.5 percentage points since the election—2 of those points in just the past week. INSA’s director, Hermann Binkert, described this drop as “a loss of support never seen before between an election and government formation.”
In contrast, the AfD has gained ground, rising by one percentage point in the poll—its best showing in any national INSA survey to date. This surge has come as a result of political instability and dissatisfaction with the coalition talks, which are now entering a delicate phase.
SPD, Greens, and Left Party Maintain Steady Support
The SPD, which is expected to join the upcoming coalition, remains stable at 16 percent in the latest poll. Meanwhile, the Greens have seen a slight dip, losing one percentage point to fall to 11 percent. The Left Party, on the other hand, gained one point to reach 11 percent, tying with the Greens.
Other parties remain well below the 5 percent threshold needed to enter parliament. The survey, conducted between 31 March and 4 April, involved 1,206 respondents, with a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points.
Political Instability Fuels AfD’s Rise
Amid the fluctuating poll numbers, controversy has erupted over the cancellation of next week’s Bundestag session, reportedly requested by the CDU/CSU and SPD. The move has sparked criticism from opposition parties, including the AfD, Greens, and Left Party.
The AfD has condemned the cancellation, calling it an act of fear. The far-right party claimed that the CDU/CSU seeks to avoid being overshadowed by the AfD in parliament. Bernd Baumann, the AfD’s parliamentary leader, announced plans to bring CDU/CSU campaign promises to the Bundestag immediately, challenging the conservative alliance’s reluctance to meet with parliament.
The Greens have referred to the decision as “a dangerous game,” while the Left Party argued that it undermines the parliamentary process, pointing to important international issues—such as former U.S. President Trump’s trade policies—that require debate.
CDU/CSU Faces Internal Struggles
The new Bundestag held its first session on 25 March, following the previous parliament’s approval of a major special debt package for infrastructure and defense. The package passed with the support of the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens, but this coalition no longer holds a majority in the current Bundestag. This shift in political dynamics, coupled with growing voter dissatisfaction, appears to be fueling the AfD’s rise.
The CDU/CSU’s decline in support is particularly concerning for Friedrich Merz, who now faces growing pressure to stabilize his party’s position while trying to negotiate a workable coalition. The challenges in coalition talks and the internal struggles within the conservative alliance have allowed the AfD to capitalize on political unrest, presenting a serious challenge to Merz’s leadership.
AfD Gains Ground Amid Uncertainty
As coalition talks continue and political tensions rise, the AfD’s surge in the polls highlights a shift in Germany’s political landscape. With the CDU/CSU facing internal struggles and the SPD, Greens, and Left Party maintaining stable support, the far-right party has positioned itself as a formidable force in German politics. This shift raises questions about the future direction of Germany’s government and the potential impact of AfD’s rising influence on national policies.