The fate of Russia’s military presence in Syria is now uncertain after the removal of Kremlin ally Bashar al-Assad. Russia operates two crucial bases: the Tartus Naval Base on the Mediterranean coast and the Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia. These bases are vital for Moscow’s strategic influence in the region.
Conflicting Reports on Russian Withdrawal
Ukraine’s military intelligence claims Russia is withdrawing troops, weapons, and equipment from these bases. Satellite images show Russian warships moving 8 to 13 kilometers offshore from Tartus. OSINT analysts report frigates, submarines, and supply vessels are now stationed at sea.
Despite these reports, the Kremlin denies a withdrawal. Russian officials say they are securing the bases and maintaining operations. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insists that warships will remain stationed in Tartus. Russian state media claims a deal ensures the bases’ security, with Assad and his family offered refuge in Russia.
Strategic Losses for Moscow
Losing these bases would significantly weaken Russia’s influence in the region and Africa. The Tartus base offers critical Mediterranean access for naval operations and supply routes to Libya and sub-Saharan Africa. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that losing these outposts could disrupt Russian logistics and military rotations in Africa.
The situation remains fluid, with Moscow’s hold on these strategic sites facing increasing challenges.