Syria’s civil war, now in its 13th year, has taken a dramatic turn. A sudden rebel offensive has shaken the fragile status quo, presenting the gravest threat to President Bashar al-Assad in years.
Rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured Aleppo and Hama in quick succession. Syrian forces, despite initial confidence, abandoned Hama, ceding control for the first time. Now, the focus shifts to Homs, a city of immense strategic importance. Tens of thousands are fleeing ahead of what promises to be another decisive battle.
Homs sits at a crucial crossroads, connecting Assad’s coastal stronghold to Damascus. HTS appears poised to challenge Assad’s regime directly. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani confirmed to CNN that overthrowing Assad remains their ultimate goal.
Assad Faces Mounting Challenges
The Syrian army, reliant on poorly paid conscripts, struggles with morale and desertion. Despite raising soldiers’ salaries by 50%, the move seems insufficient to stem defeats. Russian air support in Hama was limited, sparking speculation about Moscow’s capacity to provide decisive assistance. The ongoing war in Ukraine may have drained Russia’s resources, but its strategic interests in Syria remain.
Russia’s naval base in Tartus, its sole Mediterranean foothold, is vital. Homs’ fall could threaten this position, compelling Moscow to intensify support for Assad. Similarly, Iran, despite scaling back its aggressive regional posture, continues to back Assad through Hezbollah and militias. However, recent Israeli offensives have weakened Hezbollah, raising questions about its ability to bolster Syrian forces effectively.
The fractured opposition further complicates the landscape. Beyond HTS, other factions, including Kurdish-led groups, Turkish-backed forces, and remnants of the Islamic State, could influence the conflict’s outcome. Rebel disunity has historically benefited Assad, and he may hope for similar dynamics now.
Support for Assad persists among minorities, including his Alawite sect, who fear HTS as an extremist threat despite its break from al-Qaeda. The regime’s survival may ultimately depend on decisions made by key external players.
Russia, Iran, and Turkey have brokered agreements in Syria before, but this rapid escalation might force them to reassess their strategies. The future of Syria—whether with Assad or without—now rests in their hands.