Many major finance players have chosen sides, but Wall Street appears to think one candidate has the edge in this year’s presidential race.
Betting markets currently favor former President Donald Trump, and billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller says the financial markets are already pricing in a Trump win. Emmanuel Cau, a Barclays analyst based in London, also noted that European stocks are trading at a discount due to concerns about potential tariffs if Trump wins.
A survey by SumZero, an investor community comprising smaller hedge funds, family offices, and private equity firms, found that 53% of respondents believe Trump will come out on top. Though it only gathered responses from 119 members, the survey reflects a segment of investors and analysts with influence over substantial capital. According to respondents, a Trump victory could benefit fossil fuel, finance, and U.S. industrial sectors, while renewable energy, ESG investments, and retail might face headwinds.
This confidence in a Trump victory isn’t exclusive to his supporters. Ken Griffin, billionaire Citadel founder and prominent GOP donor, has criticized Trump in the past, even labeling him a “three-time loser” in 2022. Yet, at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Griffin predicted Trump would likely beat Vice President Kamala Harris, though he cautioned it would be close. “Trump is favored to win, but it’s almost a coin toss,” he said.
With the rise of prediction markets amid expanding online gambling, these markets are leaning toward Trump as well. Druckenmiller remarked in mid-October that markets are “very convinced” of a Republican victory. Still, Wall Street has been wrong before. Few financial leaders backed Trump during his first run, and his unexpected victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 took them by surprise. This time, though, he has high-profile billionaire supporters like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and a win wouldn’t catch Wall Street off guard. Even Christophe Barraud, a highly regarded economist, has staked his reputation on a Trump victory.
Yet, for some in finance, the race remains too close to call. “We are at this moment of peak uncertainty,” Griffin observed.
