Ukraine heavily relies on Starlink for military and civilian communication, with Elon Musk controlling the service. This has raised alarms in both Kyiv and Brussels due to Musk’s unpredictability. Ukrainian officials fear Musk may cut access, disrupting vital communication on the battlefield. As a result, the European Union is exploring alternative solutions to reduce Ukraine’s dependence on a single provider. Some experts suggest that while European options exist, they may not fully match the capabilities of Starlink.
Ukrainian Dependence on Starlink for Communication
Starlink, operated by SpaceX, provides essential satellite connectivity for Ukraine’s military and civilian operations. However, experts like Arthur De Liedekerke from Rasmussen Global have expressed concerns over this dependency, describing it as a “strategic weakness.” De Liedekerke warns that if Musk were to reduce or cut off access to Starlink, Ukraine could face significant disruptions in communication.
Elon Musk’s control over Starlink presents a unique challenge. While the service has enabled Ukraine to maintain critical connections, the unpredictable nature of Musk’s decisions could leave Ukraine vulnerable. In response, European officials are actively exploring ways to mitigate this risk and ensure Ukraine’s communication capabilities remain intact.
EU’s Push to Support Ukraine with Alternative Solutions
Recognizing the risk posed by Ukraine’s reliance on Starlink, the European Union is working on alternatives. Christophe Grudler, a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from France, confirmed that the EU has already identified technical options to support Ukraine. He stressed, however, that replacing Starlink will take time and require coordination among EU member states.
One potential solution is Govsatcom, a secure European satellite service. Set to become available in June, Govsatcom could offer Ukraine a more reliable and independent communication network. Ukraine has expressed interest in connecting to this European network, but experts like De Liedekerke are skeptical. He argues that Govsatcom, while stable, cannot meet the dynamic and mobile needs of Ukraine’s battlefield.
Challenges in Replacing Starlink with Govsatcom
Govsatcom provides encrypted satellite communications for EU governments, making it a secure alternative. However, De Liedekerke argues that its capabilities fall short for Ukraine’s specific needs. He points out that Govsatcom can provide stable links but lacks the real-time, mobile connectivity crucial for military operations. Despite these limitations, Grudler remains optimistic, believing that EU members would back Ukraine in an emergency.
Grudler also sees Govsatcom as a temporary solution, not a long-term fix. He further suggested that industrial support through companies like Eutelsat could offer another practical step forward. Eutelsat operates a low-Earth orbit satellite network that provides services similar to Starlink, but it faces challenges in competing with Starlink’s scale.
Eutelsat’s Role and Challenges in Competing with Starlink
Eutelsat, a European satellite operator, has already deployed 2,000 ground terminals in Ukraine, primarily for civilian use. The company plans to expand its presence with 4,000 additional units and has already ordered 10,000 more. However, Starlink remains the dominant player, with 40,000 active terminals in Ukraine. While Eutelsat’s terminals cost significantly more—€9,000 compared to Starlink’s €500 per unit—the company offers a notable advantage: political independence from the United States.
De Liedekerke called Eutelsat a “European champion” and suggested it could be a valuable partner in supporting Ukraine’s satellite communication needs. However, Eutelsat still faces significant cost and scale challenges, making it less competitive compared to Starlink’s vast network of satellites.
Europe’s Long-Term Plan: The Iris2 Satellite Network
Looking ahead, the EU is developing Iris2, a new satellite constellation designed to provide ultra-fast, secure communication to all EU states. Iris2 will consist of 290 multi-orbit satellites and will use post-quantum encryption, ensuring unmatched cybersecurity. Grudler, who led the project in the European Parliament, expects the first services to launch by 2028, with full deployment by 2030.
The Iris2 project is being built by the SpaceRISE consortium, which includes Eutelsat, SES, Hispasat, and tech giants like Airbus and Thales. This ambitious plan aims to establish a reliable European network that could eventually offer Ukraine a more secure and independent communication infrastructure.
Ensuring Resilience: Redundancy Is Key
De Liedekerke emphasized the importance of redundancy in satellite communication systems. He warned that relying on a single provider for critical communication creates an unacceptable level of risk. “Options matter,” he stated, highlighting the need for diverse networks to ensure that Ukraine remains online, even if one system fails.
To reduce this risk, the EU is focused on strengthening its infrastructure and diversifying its satellite communication options. The goal is to build a more resilient network that will protect Ukraine’s communication capabilities and provide a sustainable, long-term solution to its reliance on Starlink.
As Ukraine continues to depend heavily on Starlink for battlefield communication, the EU’s efforts to provide alternatives are gaining momentum. While Govsatcom and Eutelsat present viable options, their capabilities may not fully replace Starlink’s real-time, mobile connectivity. The development of Iris2, however, offers hope for a secure and independent European network. With a focus on redundancy and diversification, the EU aims to ensure that Ukraine’s communication infrastructure remains strong and resilient in the face of geopolitical uncertainties.