The shadow of Moscow looms large over the European Union’s attempts to expand eastward, as recent elections in Georgia and Moldova reveal a tug-of-war between Russian and European influences.
On Wednesday, the European Commission released its annual assessment of candidate countries vying for EU membership. The report highlighted that none of these nations made significant progress despite a renewed urgency to integrate them into the European bloc, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Currently, ten countries are in line for potential EU membership, with nine recognized as official candidates.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the necessity of completing the reunification of Europe under shared democratic values. However, the recent parliamentary elections in Georgia and Moldova have exposed the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to counteract EU expansion.
In Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream party, perceived as closely aligned with Moscow, solidified its power amid allegations of electoral irregularities. The EU has demanded a swift investigation into these claims. Tbilisi’s aspirations for EU membership have been stalled due to concerns about democratic backsliding, particularly following the government’s adoption of controversial legislation seen as inspired by Russian law. The EU has urged the Georgian government to repeal these laws to revive its membership bid.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs chief, offered Georgia a potential path to re-engagement with the EU, contingent upon a clear demonstration of political will from its leaders. He warned that maintaining ties with Russia would hinder Georgia’s chances of EU accession.
Tinatin Akhvlediani, a research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies, noted that the current government’s mixed messaging regarding EU commitment would impede progress. She stressed that as long as the ruling party pursues anti-democratic measures, Georgia’s EU ambitions will remain stagnant.
In Moldova, recent developments revealed a narrow victory for a constitutional amendment aimed at cementing the country’s goal of EU membership, passed by just 50.38% of the vote. The Moldovan government has accused Russia of spending around €100 million to undermine the electoral process through disinformation campaigns. The Commission’s report underscored Moldova’s struggles against Russian aggression and hybrid threats, while cautioning against heavy-handed responses that could undermine the rule of law.
The upcoming presidential runoff will be critical, with pro-EU President Maia Sandu facing off against the pro-Russian Aleksandr Stoianoglo. A victory for Sandu is seen as crucial for Moldova’s EU trajectory, where public support for membership hovers around 60%.
In the Western Balkans, Serbia’s ties with Russia also pose challenges for its EU candidacy. President Aleksandar Vučić has resisted aligning with EU sanctions against Russia, leading to renewed criticism from Brussels. Following Vučić’s meeting with a Russian minister, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen canceled talks with him, highlighting concerns over Serbia’s strategic direction amid its growing relationships with Russia and China.
The situation in Georgia and Moldova, alongside Serbia’s stance, illustrates the complexities facing the EU as it navigates the geopolitical landscape shaped by Russian influence. As EU officials call for greater integration and adherence to democratic norms, the challenge remains: how to effectively counter Moscow’s efforts while supporting the aspirations of Eastern European nations.
