As world leaders meet at COP29, scientists warn the global temperature threshold is now out of reach.
The global objective to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is now considered unattainable, according to climate scientists. Projections for 2024 indicate it will be the first year to exceed this threshold, highlighting the urgency of tackling climate change even as discussions continue at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
2024 Expected to Cross 1.5°C Threshold
Three leading climate monitoring agencies predict that 2024 will surpass the 1.5°C mark, making it the hottest year on record, eclipsing 2023. This milestone continues a decade-long trend, with the past 10 years ranking as the warmest in recorded history.
Although a single year above 1.5°C doesn’t technically breach the Paris Agreement’s targets, which focus on sustained warming levels, experts view this as a critical warning sign. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, commented, “The goal to avoid surpassing 1.5°C is now deader than a doornail. We waited too long to act, and emissions are still climbing.”
The Symbolic Weight of the 1.5°C Target
The 1.5°C threshold, established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, was a critical marker advocated by vulnerable nations to stave off the worst impacts of climate change. Exceeding it underscores the failure of global efforts to significantly cut emissions.
Still, experts emphasize the importance of reducing further warming. Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA, said, “Even if we exceed 1.5°C, every fraction of a degree matters. The less we warm the planet, the better it will be for both ecosystems and people.”
Emissions Continue to Rise Despite Pledges
Despite commitments to transition from fossil fuels, global emissions are expected to reach an all-time high in 2024. Current pledges, even if fulfilled, put the planet on a trajectory to warm by 2.7°C—far exceeding the Paris Agreement’s goals—and risk triggering widespread heatwaves, flooding, and food insecurity.
At COP29, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of humanity’s perilous situation, calling it a “masterclass in climate destruction.” He urged leaders to act decisively. However, the anticipated return of Donald Trump, who is expected to reverse key climate policies, could worsen the situation, potentially adding 0.04°C to global temperatures, according to experts.
Progress Amid Challenges
Despite the grim outlook, advancements in renewable energy offer hope. Clean energy technologies are becoming more accessible and cost-effective, with oil demand expected to peak before 2030.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, speaking at COP29, noted, “Today’s climate policies, though imperfect, are far stronger than they were a decade ago. While progress has been made, the urgency to act has never been greater.”
Rising Risk of Climate Tipping Points
Surpassing 1.5°C increases the likelihood of triggering irreversible tipping points, such as the collapse of ice sheets, the Amazon transitioning to savanna, and massive carbon releases from thawing permafrost. Grahame Madge of the UK Met Office described these risks as “monsters in the darkness” that humanity must strive to avoid.
“The more we heat the planet, the closer we get to tipping points that could bring drastic and irreversible consequences,” Madge said. “Every fraction of a degree matters in this fight.”
The Fight Must Continue
Although the 1.5°C target is now out of reach, experts stress that reducing emissions remains critical to minimizing further harm. “Pushing the climate system beyond its limits leads to outcomes we cannot control,” Hausfather explained.
Even as the world moves beyond this symbolic milestone, the call for action persists. Limiting warming, reducing emissions, and adopting sustainable practices are essential to safeguarding the planet’s future.
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