A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has a small chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. Space agencies estimate the impact probability at just over 1%, meaning there is a 99% chance it will miss.
“We are not worried at all, but it does deserve attention,” said Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
Tracking Asteroid 2024 YR4
Astronomers in Chile discovered 2024 YR4 last month. The asteroid measures between 130 and 330 feet (40 to 100 meters) in diameter. On December 25, it passed 800,000 kilometers from Earth, about twice the moon’s distance. Scientists detected it two days later.
Currently, the asteroid is moving away from Earth, making it harder to track. Experts expect it to become visible again in 2028, allowing them to refine its projected path.
Researchers are also reviewing archival sky surveys from 2016 to find earlier images of the asteroid. These could help confirm if it truly poses a risk or if the impact probability drops to zero.
What Happens If It Hits Earth?
If 2024 YR4 collides with Earth, it could cause serious damage. According to ESA (European Space Agency), asteroids of this size typically strike Earth once every few thousand years. While they don’t cause global disasters, they can still create major local destruction.
ESA has now placed 2024 YR4 at the top of its asteroid risk list. Over the coming months, some of the world’s most advanced telescopes will closely track its movements.
“If we don’t find earlier images, the impact probability will change as we gather more data,” Chodas explained.
No Immediate Danger, But Monitoring Continues
Despite the uncertainty, NASA confirms that no other large asteroids currently pose a greater than 1% impact risk.
For now, astronomers will continue tracking 2024 YR4. With more observations, they hope to eliminate any risk well before 2032.