ASML, a Dutch chip equipment maker, expects limited impact from recent US restrictions on AI chip exports to China. The company confirmed its guidance for 2024 and 2025, with no anticipated material impact on its business. ASML’s stock rose 0.9% to €664 after the announcement.
Limited Business Impact and Exemptions
The US Department of Commerce introduced stricter controls on AI chip exports, targeting high-bandwidth memory chips. These restrictions apply to foreign-made products containing US technology. However, ASML and Tokyo Electron Ltd. received exemptions, enabling continued exports.
ASML acknowledged the potential for restrictions if Dutch authorities adopt similar security measures. The company’s DUV immersion lithography systems could face limitations if their fabrication aligns with restricted criteria.
In September, the Dutch government, aligning with the US, required ASML to secure licenses for supplying spare parts and updates to Chinese clients. Despite these restrictions, ASML foresees minimal disruption to its operations.
Guidance and Long-Term Outlook
ASML reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, projecting net sales of €30–35 billion. While China’s contribution dropped to 20% of total revenue, the firm remains optimistic. Despite weak third-quarter earnings, which caused a 16% stock drop in October, shares regained strength in November.
CEO Christophe Fouquet expressed confidence in long-term growth, predicting annual sales of €44–60 billion by 2030. Gross margins are expected to rise from 51% to 56–60% during the same period. The company highlighted strong semiconductor demand as a key driver, independent of geographic factors.
ASML reiterated its bullish outlook for 2030, maintaining confidence in sustained global wafer demand.