Last week, Germany and the UK solidified their defence cooperation by signing a significant treaty aimed at enhancing collaboration across land, sea, air, and precision strike capabilities. Dubbed the Trinity House Agreement, this pact connects Germany, France, and the UK through a network of bilateral treaties, which is especially crucial as Europe anticipates changes in NATO dynamics following the upcoming US presidential election.
As Europe braces for a potential shift in US leadership, the German government has been preparing for the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency. Experts warn that even if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected, she may redirect US foreign policy focus toward the Indo-Pacific, thereby diminishing attention on European security as early as 2027.
Defence expert Dr. Aylin Matlé notes that the timing of the agreement is deliberate. “Regardless of whether it’s a Harris administration, the US will likely demand more from its European allies,” she says. The Trinity House Agreement represents a significant move towards reinforcing the European component of NATO, particularly in light of the European long-range strike initiative aimed at developing and acquiring long-range missile capabilities essential for air defence in response to Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine.
While the agreement enhances the political landscape for European defence, Dr. Matlé cautions that it is not a comprehensive solution to Europe’s defence challenges. It serves as a vital political statement, demonstrating a commitment to shared security responsibilities to both domestic and international audiences, including the US.
Trump has previously criticized NATO countries, particularly Germany, for not meeting the 2% GDP defence spending target, and if he were to be re-elected, he might renew calls for increased contributions from Europe. The goal of the treaty is to convey to US lawmakers that Europe is aware of its reliance on US security provisions and is willing to shoulder more of the burden.
Importantly, the Trinity House Agreement is not yet legally binding. For it to take effect, a formal treaty must be drafted and signed by both countries’ leaders, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which is anticipated to happen early next year. This agreement, while politically significant, is still in the process of becoming a cornerstone of European defence strategy.