Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are signaling their closing strategies by focusing the limited time left in the 2024 campaign on key swing states. Both candidates are making stops in each of the seven battleground states over the final days. Harris spent Friday in Wisconsin, Saturday in Georgia and North Carolina, and is in Michigan today. Trump spent Friday in Michigan and Wisconsin, Saturday in North Carolina, and today will visit Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Both candidates also appeared in Nevada and Arizona on Thursday.
Trump has raised eyebrows with some unconventional moves, visiting New Mexico and Virginia—states that haven’t voted Republican in two decades. His campaign even scheduled a last-minute rally in New Hampshire with Vice Presidential Nominee Sen. JD Vance, though major election forecasters don’t list these states as “toss-ups.” The weekend’s events underscored that surprises remain possible in this chaotic race, regardless of what polling suggests.
Harris could expand her electoral map unexpectedly. A recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll gave her a 3-point lead among likely voters in Iowa—a state Trump previously won with ease in 2016 and 2020. Another poll still showed Trump ahead there, but the noteworthy trend is Trump’s struggle with older women voters. If this trend holds in the Midwest, it could be problematic for him.
Both candidates are investing heavily in Pennsylvania, the most crucial swing state. If Harris holds the “Blue Wall”—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—along with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, she could win even if Trump carries the other swing states. However, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Harris’s path becomes more challenging; she would need to secure either Georgia or North Carolina in addition to Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as Nevada and Arizona.
North Carolina stands out for both campaigns. Trump is dedicating significant time there, second only to Pennsylvania, while Harris held a rally in Charlotte on Saturday before heading to New York for a surprise appearance on “Saturday Night Live.” Currently, polling shows Trump with a slight edge in North Carolina, a state that has leaned Republican since 2000 except for Obama’s win in 2008.
Harris’s aides were quick to mock Trump’s focus on North Carolina. “Donald Trump is worried about losing North Carolina,” Harris spokesperson Ammar Moussa posted online. Longtime Democratic advisor Doug Sosnik sees the state as challenging for Democrats, though Harris’s campaign still considers it a worthwhile target.
Trump’s campaign, in turn, claimed Harris is the one playing defense, with spokesperson Karoline Leavitt noting, “President Trump is leading in every battleground state,” while Harris “remains on defense, turning out the vote in Black communities and sending Bill Clinton to New Hampshire.”
Another factor in North Carolina is the state’s population boom. Census Bureau data ranks it among the top states for in-migration, with an annual average of 99,000 new residents since 2020. Davidson College political science professor Susan Roberts pointed out that the influx of new residents adds unpredictability to North Carolina’s vote.
Trump also faces potential disruption from Hurricane Helene’s impact on his strongest counties, where polling places are being relocated. “If North Carolina is close and Harris is a hair ahead, I think votes in Western North Carolina will be scrutinized to the last detail,” Roberts said, noting that delays in affected areas could impact vote counting.
