With Election Day approaching on Tuesday, the fiercely contested U.S. presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is nearing its conclusion. Over 68 million Americans have already cast their votes, reflecting the high stakes and intense interest in a race filled with more twists than any in recent history.
Throughout the campaign, Trump has drawn support from concerns over the economy, a key issue for many voters. Earlier, with President Joe Biden as the presumed Democratic nominee, the economy was seen as Biden’s biggest vulnerability, even with low unemployment and job gains since the COVID-19 pandemic. Inflation, however, has fueled much of this economic anxiety, as rising prices strain household budgets despite recent wage increases.
When Harris stepped in as the Democratic nominee in July, she quickly prioritized economic issues, pledging to tackle price gouging and outlining a comprehensive economic plan. Her focus on the economy has helped narrow the gap between Democrats and Republicans, bringing the race to a virtual tie in the final days as both candidates appeal to swing-state voters.
Key Battleground States Remain Close
Harris’ potential path to 270 electoral votes involves winning traditional Democratic strongholds and blue-leaning states along with Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — part of the so-called “blue wall” that consistently supported Democratic nominees from 1992 to 2012 — are critical. Trump broke through this wall in 2016, capturing the working-class and independent voters who had previously backed former President Barack Obama. However, in 2020, Biden regained these states for Democrats by narrow margins, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd District. Polls indicate that Harris may also have an advantage in this district.
Harris has focused heavily on these battlegrounds, which include urban, suburban, and rural areas vital for both campaigns. Winning in these regions would counterbalance Trump’s likely strong showing in the Sun Belt.
The Sun Belt’s Competitive Landscape
Previously, Trump held an edge in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Harris’ candidacy, however, has energized younger voters and minority groups who were less enthusiastic about Biden, keeping these traditionally Republican Sun Belt states competitive. Although Republicans seem to hold an early-voting advantage in Nevada, the final outcome will depend on Election Day turnout and remaining mail-in ballots.
The economy and immigration are focal issues in the Sun Belt, topics that tend to favor Trump. However, Harris has gained ground by emphasizing issues such as abortion, democracy, and middle-class support, all resonating with voters here.
A Historic Gender Gap Likely
Initially, Biden held a modest lead with female voters, while Trump performed better with male voters. Now, with Harris on the ticket — and the chance to elect the first female president — a record gender gap is anticipated once all votes are counted. Harris’ strong support among women is driven partly by her stance on abortion rights, a topic reignited in 2022 when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion laws up to individual states. Millions of women now live in states with severe abortion restrictions, while others live in states where access has been bolstered. In her final days of campaigning, Harris has highlighted this issue, which also boosted Democratic turnout in the 2022 midterms.
Meanwhile, Trump has focused on conservative media outlets popular among male listeners and has gained notable support among young Black and Latino men. A recent national poll by The New York Times/Siena College revealed the magnitude of this gender divide, showing Trump leading Harris by 14 points among men (55% to 41%), while Harris held a 12-point lead with women (54% to 42%). The survey ultimately showed the race as a dead heat, with each candidate securing 48% support among likely voters.