Bulgaria’s center-right GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, is projected to win the parliamentary election, according to exit polls released on Sunday.
The Gallup International poll indicates that GERB, which stands for Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria, has garnered approximately 25% of the vote, placing it ahead of the reformist coalition of We Continue the Change and the right-wing Democratic Bulgaria by nearly 10%.
While initial results are expected on Monday, final official counts may take several days. If the exit poll results are confirmed, Borissov will receive a mandate to form his fourth government. However, securing a governing coalition in a fragmented parliament may prove challenging, given voter fatigue and growing disillusionment with political leaders. This environment has fueled the rise of radical political factions, with pro-Russian and far-right groups benefiting from pervasive disinformation campaigns.
In the previous election held in June, no party emerged as a clear victor, resulting in a fragmented legislature unable to form a viable coalition. Observers anticipate that the current election may lead to even more complex negotiations, with projections indicating up to nine parties could be represented in parliament.
The ongoing political instability has adversely affected Bulgaria’s economy and foreign policy, raising concerns that the country may forfeit billions in EU recovery funds due to stalled reforms. Additionally, Bulgaria’s full integration into the Schengen area and its aspirations to join the eurozone may face further delays.
Analysts interpret these issues as potential motivators for parties across the political spectrum to seek pragmatic compromises. The pro-Russian Vazrazhdane party, initially expected to become the second-largest group in the legislature, appears to have underperformed, maintaining its isolation in parliament. This far-right, ultra-nationalist party has called for the lifting of sanctions against Russia and a halt to aid for Ukraine, as well as a referendum on NATO membership.
Should mainstream parties fail to navigate the parliamentary deadlock, the allure of Vazrazhdane and similar groups may grow, posing challenges to Bulgaria’s pro-Western trajectory.
