Ukraine’s decision to halt Russian gas transit through its pipelines, effective January 1, has raised alarm across Europe. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico warned that the move will harm the European Union more than Russia, predicting significant economic consequences for EU nations. Slovakia, heavily reliant on Russian gas, faces a future of higher energy prices and potential losses in transit fees.
On January 1, Ukraine officially ended its decades-long gas transit deal with Russia, a move that has sent shockwaves through the European Union. The decision to halt the flow of Russian gas through Soviet-era pipelines, which had long served as a crucial energy route for the EU, has sparked concerns over the bloc’s energy security and economic stability.
Slovakia’s Alarm Over Energy Crisis
Slovakia, which has long been dependent on Russian gas, faces potentially severe economic consequences as a result of the termination of this vital transit agreement. Prime Minister Robert Fico, known for his pro-Russian stance, criticized Ukraine’s decision in a New Year’s Day address, warning that the EU would suffer far more than Russia. He described the move as “drastic” and warned that it would lead to soaring energy prices across the EU.
“The halting of gas transit via Ukraine will have a drastic impact on us all in the EU — but not on the Russian Federation,” Fico said on social media.
Slovakia, which had spent months lobbying Ukraine to extend the gas transit deal, stands to lose up to €500 million annually in transit fees. Fico has estimated that the economic fallout for the EU could reach as much as €120 billion over the next two years. The loss of affordable Russian gas is expected to send energy prices spiraling, impacting businesses and consumers across the bloc.
Tensions Between Slovakia and Ukraine
The termination of the gas deal has further strained relations between Slovakia and Ukraine. Fico’s frustration over the failed negotiations with Kyiv has been compounded by his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow just last month. Fico is one of only three EU leaders to visit the Kremlin since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. During their talks, Fico discussed gas supplies and other issues, expressing his concerns over the impact of Ukraine’s decision on Slovakia and the EU.
Following the visit, Fico suggested that Slovakia might consider taking “reciprocal measures” against Ukraine, including halting backup electricity supplies. However, Kyiv swiftly dismissed the threat, and Poland stepped forward to offer additional energy exports to Ukraine, should the need arise.
Slovakia’s Diversification Efforts
Despite the termination of the gas transit deal, Slovakia has assured its citizens that it will work to prevent any gas shortages. Over the past year, the country has made concerted efforts to diversify its energy imports, aiming to reduce its reliance on Russian gas. Slovakia has signed a short-term contract with Azerbaijan for gas supplies and secured an agreement to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States via a Polish pipeline.
Additionally, Slovakia can access gas from neighboring Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, with the possibility of importing from Germany and other European suppliers. These efforts are part of Slovakia’s broader strategy to adapt to the rapidly changing energy landscape in Europe.
However, despite these efforts, Fico’s concerns about the broader economic impact of Ukraine’s decision on the EU remain prominent. The termination of the gas deal represents a significant shift in the EU’s energy supply strategy, one that will require careful navigation in the months and years ahead.
Ukraine’s termination of the gas transit deal with Russia has triggered a wave of concern across Europe, particularly in Slovakia, where energy prices are expected to surge. As Slovakia diversifies its energy sources to mitigate the impact, the EU must prepare for the economic challenges posed by this shift. While Slovakia adapts to a new energy landscape, Fico’s warnings underscore the broader ramifications for the European Union in the wake of this dramatic change.