Oil prices rose nearly 1% Thursday after Israel reported ceasefire violations with Hezbollah, raising regional instability concerns.
Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee stated on social media platform X that “several suspects were seen entering southern Lebanon.”
Brent crude reached $72.90 a barrel during midday European trading, recovering from earlier losses.
The ceasefire, initiated Wednesday, aimed to end 14 months of border conflict between Israel and Lebanon.
Renewed violence has heightened fears of supply disruptions and regional instability, with residents advised to avoid border areas.
OPEC+ Postpones Meeting as Analysts Highlight Stronger Cohesion
OPEC+ rescheduled its production policy meeting to December 5, 2024, to accommodate the 45th Gulf Summit in Kuwait.
Analysts expect the meeting to focus on extending production cuts into 2024 amid persistently low oil prices.
Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven said compliance among OPEC+ members is increasing, indicating stronger cohesion within the cartel.
The bank predicts Brent crude will average $76 per barrel in 2025, peaking at $78 in June.
Production increases are now expected to begin in April 2025, later than the previously forecasted January start.
Market Trends and Long-Term Outlook
US Energy Information Administration data shows crude oil and gasoline inventories are at five-year lows, worsening short-term supply concerns.
Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude reaching the mid-$80s in early 2025 if stricter sanctions cut Iran’s supply significantly.
The bank predicts oil demand will grow for another decade, driven by emerging markets and slow decarbonization efforts.
Geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions will shape short-term trends, while long-term demand challenges remain critical.
