China is increasingly concerned about the expanding military and strategic ties between Russia and North Korea, particularly regarding the reported deployment of 10,000 North Korean troops to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, according to Kurt Campbell, the US Deputy Secretary of State. Campbell’s remarks reflect a growing debate among US allies in Asia over whether China is backing Pyongyang’s decision to send troops to the frontlines in Ukraine.
Although China has remained largely silent on the issue, its officials are reportedly uneasy about the implications of the Russia-North Korea alliance. There are fears that this cooperation could potentially strengthen US-led military alliances in East Asia, particularly with South Korea and Japan, which Beijing sees as a challenge to its regional dominance.
In a rare attempt at reconciliation, China has announced plans to remove a buoy placed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone near the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. While this gesture is symbolic, it signals China’s desire to manage relations with Japan and avoid further strain, especially amidst concerns over the growing influence of US-led coalitions in the region.
Campbell noted that discussions with Chinese officials on North Korea’s actions have raised awareness of the issue, with some Chinese interlocutors expressing concern that Russian encouragement might push North Korea into taking military actions that would not align with China’s long-term interests. While Beijing has not directly criticized Russia, there is growing unease about the deepening military coordination between Moscow and Pyongyang.
However, experts remain divided on whether China and Russia are on the brink of a major fallout. Dennis Wilder, a former CIA official, criticized China’s silence on the issue, particularly the lack of public acknowledgment regarding the strategic agreement between Russia and North Korea earlier this year. He argued that China will face international backlash, particularly from Europe, for its failure to address North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict.
At the same time, Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, described the Russia-North Korea relationship as a “transactional symbiosis,” with Russia benefiting from North Korean artillery and missile supplies, while providing Pyongyang with advanced military technologies. Meanwhile, Andrew Shearer, director-general of Australia’s Office of National Intelligence, expressed skepticism about the depth of China’s discomfort with the situation, emphasizing that China’s support for Russia’s war effort has been critical in allowing Moscow to continue its military operations.
In Japan, there is also skepticism regarding China’s position. Professor Emi Mifune from Komazawa University suggested that China must be aware of Russia’s plans and that Beijing cannot afford to see Moscow defeated by the West. A Russian victory could benefit China’s own geopolitical ambitions, particularly in Taiwan.
Professor Hideya Kurata from Japan’s National Defense Academy argued that China is not overtly approving or disapproving of the Russia-North Korea alliance but is instead uncomfortable with the evolving situation. He pointed out that North Korea’s growing missile and nuclear capabilities represent a direct challenge to regional security, and China’s concerns will be shaped by its broader strategic objectives in the Korean Peninsula and beyond.
